When Mr. Narendra Modi swept into power as India’s Prime Minister on May 16, 2014 quite a few people assumed that his leadership would be good news for Beijing. Mr. Modi is the leader of the right-of-centre Bharatiya Janata Party. Studying his record, one could easily conclude that he has been unfriendly to China, having once strongly termed Beijing as an “offender” to Indian national interests. The Chinese media regards him as India’s Shinzo Abe, a notorious “China basher”. However, there are a number of reasons for Beijing to hope for a new era of improved relations with New Delhi. Mr. Modi’s victory comes from the Indian voters’ crushing verdict, in response to the corruption scandals and flagging economic growth that have plagued their country in recent years. Prime Minister Modi will therefore make great efforts to revitalize the Indian economy. China has been an indispensable economic and trading partner for New Delhi. The India-China trade volume of 2013 is USD 49.5 billion and accounts for 8.7% of its total foreign trade. The figures indicate that Beijing has surpassed the United States (USD 46 billion) and United Arab Emirates (USD 45.4 billion) to become India’s no. 1 trading partner. Ten years ago, the China-India trading volume was USD 7 billion. The speed of its rise is a clear revelation of its vast potential. Growing co-dependency of their economic ties will likely draw Mr. Modi’s attention towards Beijing. Mr. Modi has interestingly showed his personal desire to emulate China’s development pattern and has vowed to steer his country to match China’s economic growth. As the only two countries worldwide with 1 billion plus populations, India and China are well placed to learn from each other. India’s democratic system might not have created an economic miracle comparable to China’s. But increasing numbers of Chinese recognize that India has proven to be more “harmonious” and less “disorderly” than China. Similarly, China’s efficacy and learning capacity might impress Indians as well. As two emerging economies, Beijing and New Delhi have a lot to complement each other. The BRICS summit meetings might not be a binding instrument to redeem their shared economic and political agenda. Nevertheless, the BRICS cooperation will help build a bond to increase economic complementarities. China and India have set a goal of reaching USD 100 billion in bilateral trade by 2015. To fulfill this goal, both countries should inject new political wisdom and courage into their economic ties. For instance, Beijing should enthusiastically open its market for more India-made IT services and pharmaceutical imports. At the same time, New Delhi should welcome more Chinese investment to help uplift its manufacturing and infrastructure sector. It will not be an easy journey given India’s growing call for reducing its trade deficit with China. But Modi’s India and Xi Jinping’s China should also pay more attention to their bilateral relations. Shortly after Mr. Modi’s inauguration, Beijing warmly reached out to his government. Xi Jinping’s visit to India has been planned earlier than expected. Officials of three countries � China, India and Myanmar � got together in Beijing on 28 June 2014 to celebrate the 60th anniversaries of the joint announcement of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. At the Bandung Conference in 1954, the Prime Ministers of the three countries jointly advocated those principles, which signified the political cohesion of the third world. That was a beautiful time for China-India relations. The memorial meeting on June 28 in Beijing is a positive message for the Modi Administration to the effect that Beijing is ready to turn a new historic page with its Indian counterparts in light of the Bandung legacy. Even strategically, India’s role in Asian affairs has never been more desired than it is at the present time. Asia’s power structure is experiencing an interesting but epic tuning. The American “pivot”, the resurgence of Japan’s regional security activism, President Putin’s strategic engagement with East Asia, and a rising China, all these are causing power relations to be profoundly re-instituted. Given the great personal relationship between Mr. Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Abe, India-Japan ties will inevitably become closer. Should Beijing feel uneasy and become quite wary of this? Of course, Beijing will certainly be keeping an eye on how relations between Japan and India progress. But it is doubtful that Mr. Modi’s India will put its diplomatic centre of gravity overwhelmingly on Tokyo. As a great power, New Delhi has a solid tradition of pursuing its independent course of diplomacy, reflecting its own vision of world affairs. Despite Tokyo’s counting on Mr. Modi for an anti-China campaign, this might not come true. Last but not least, how India productively balances its ties between Beijing and Tokyo will be a big test of Mr. Modi’s strategy. For its part, Beijing still seems confident that the New Delhi-Tokyo intimacy will not cost China too much. Looking at India’s open support to President Putin’s Crimea gambit, there is not much fear in Beijing that India will easily take sides. At the very least, Mr. Modi’s India, if it is delicate and intelligent enough, will increasingly affect the balance of power in Asia.
Zhu Feng is Professor and Executive Director of China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea at Nanjing University. |